How long will my savings last, under three different return assumptions

Why three scenarios instead of one number?

Every drawdown calculator we could find picks one return assumption and shows one answer. The trouble is that the whole answer hangs on that assumption, and none of them say so.

Two percentage points of assumed return can move the answer by a decade. That is not a rounding difference, it is the difference between the money lasting and not lasting, and a tool that hides it behind a single confident figure is not being straight with you. So all three are shown at once, and you can change every one of them.

This is the same reason our credit card calculator shows all three minimum-payment structures side by side: published sources each quietly pick one and disagree with each other by decades.

What do most free calculators leave out?

Inflation on the withdrawal. Almost every free drawdown tool holds the monthly withdrawal flat in nominal terms, which quietly understates how fast the money goes.

If you need $3,500 a month today, in fifteen years at 2.5% inflation you need about $5,070 to buy the same things. Holding the withdrawal flat is not being conservative, it is simply modelling a life where your costs never rise. So here the withdrawal increases each year by the inflation rate you set, and you can set it to zero if you want to see the nominal version.

The arithmetic steps month by month: the balance earns one month of return, then the withdrawal comes out, and each year the withdrawal rises. Nothing is annualised or approximated.

What can this not tell you?

Sequence matters, and this cannot see it. The same average return produces very different outcomes depending on when the bad years fall. Poor returns in the first few years of drawdown do far more damage than the same returns later, because the withdrawals come out of a smaller balance. A steady-return model like this one cannot show that, and it is the single biggest limitation on the page.

No tax, no fees. Both reduce what you actually keep, and both depend on your jurisdiction and your accounts. Neither is modelled here, so treat the answers as the ceiling rather than the expectation.

No probability figure. Some tools give a "chance of success" percentage. Producing one honestly needs a Monte Carlo simulation, and a single percentage about somebody's retirement reads as a verdict. Three transparent scenarios say the same thing without pretending to more precision than the inputs support.

And no view on what you should do. This works out how long the money lasts at the numbers you entered. It does not know your health, your family, your plans or your appetite for risk.

Common questions

How long will my savings last?

It depends almost entirely on two things: what you withdraw as a share of the balance, and what the balance earns. At a withdrawal of around 4% of the starting balance a year, a portfolio earning more than inflation has historically lasted a long time. At 8% a year it runs down quickly regardless of returns. Enter your own figures above and all three scenarios appear at once.

How long will $500,000 last in retirement?

At $3,500 a month rising with inflation, and a middle return of 5%, the calculator above gives the answer for those exact assumptions. Change the return to 3% and watch how far it moves: that gap is the honest answer to the question, and it is why one number would be misleading.

Should the withdrawal rise with inflation?

If you want to keep the same standard of living, yes. A flat withdrawal means your spending power falls every year, which is a real choice some people make deliberately, but it should be a choice rather than a hidden assumption. Set inflation to zero above if you want to see it flat.

What return should I assume?

This page does not tell you, because it would be a view on your investments. What it does is show three at once so you can see how much the answer depends on it. The defaults of 3%, 5% and 7% are round figures spanning a plausible range, not a forecast.

What is sequence of returns risk?

The order returns arrive in matters when you are withdrawing. A bad first five years does more damage than the same five years later, because each withdrawal is taken from a balance that has already fallen. A steady-return calculator cannot show this, which is why the answers here should be read as a guide to the shape of the problem rather than a forecast.

Is this financial advice?

No. It is arithmetic on numbers you entered. It recommends nothing, names no product, and knows nothing about you beyond those numbers. If you want advice about your circumstances, that is a conversation with a licensed adviser.

This is a model, not a prediction. It works out how long a balance lasts at the withdrawal and returns you entered, with the withdrawal rising annually by your inflation figure. It does not model tax, fees, or sequence of returns risk, and it cannot predict investment returns or inflation. It is not intended to be your only source of information when making a financial decision, and you may want to consider advice from a licensed financial adviser. The defaults of 3%, 5% and 7% returns and 2.5% inflation are round figures spanning a plausible range rather than forecasts, and every one is yours to change.